TJENG Volume 2018

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Risk Analysis of Road Construction Projects: A Case Study from Erbil

Khattab Qadir Darwish, Hande Aladağ, Gökhan Demirdöğen, Zeynep Isik
Keywords: construction industry, Monte Carlo simulation, risk analysis, road construction projects
Construction firms need to identify and mitigate the possible risk factors that can occur in projects to increase their performance considering the increasing competitiveness in the construction industry. Taken into account of huge demand for infrastructure services allied to Iraq’s reconstruction, road projects become prominent ones among required infrastructure projects. In this context, identifying risks and developing a risk analysis model for the road construction projects in Erbil constitutes the aim of the study. In this context, a total number of 67 risks that affects road construction projects were identified with a comprehensive literature review. Then, a survey questionnaire was used for data collection with the participation of 56 respondents to perform qualitative risk analysis. Gathered data was analyzed by using probability-impact matrix to prioritize identified risks. After then, Monte Carlo Simulation was used as a quantitative risk analysis method. According to the result of qualitative analysis, a total number of 46 risk factors out of a total number of 67 risk factor were found out as the prominent risk factors for road construction projects in Erbil. The results of Monte Carlo simulation also show that the technical risks are the most significant risks considering their effect on the total project cost.


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